The Andrew Extravaganza

I feel obligated as a sports fan to go on record with a Super Bowl pick. Before the playoffs began, I picked Seattle to beat Denver. The easy run through the playoffs has instilled some doubt in my mind about the Seahawks. They've put up a great body of work, but coming from the weakest divsion of the weaker conference, they just haven't been vetted as strenuously as the Steelers.

Seattle: I like their defense a lot: they put on a strong pass rush, Tatupu has been brilliant, and they shut down the run, but they do give up yards through the air. On offense, they've been unstoppable. Yet somehow, NFL MVP Shaun Alexander is getting shit on by most of the assembled press. He's not a complete back (can't pass protect or catch), but you won't find a better pure runner in the league; I expect him to go over 100 yards in this one.

Pittsburgh: Jerome Bettis is fat. He's not a Hall of Famer in my book either. Three very good years (93, 96, & 97) are not enough to offset a dozen years of low yards per carry and high fumbles. I do think he'll score a TD in this one though. Willie Parker is the key for the Steelers on the ground; they need him to show up for a playoff game for a change. I'm finally coming around on Roethlisberger; he's very Favre-like. I think he'll do some damage to Seattle by moving around in the pocket to avoid the rush. Big Ben is one of the best at throwing on the move and he has a great target in Hines Ward (my favorite NFL receiver). Oh yeah, the Steelers are good on defense too; better than Seattle.

I'm going to stick to my guns and pick Seattle to win 24-20.

Some bets that I like: (purely for fun)
1) Seattle +4
2) Under 46.5
3) Big Ben passing yards: Over 220.5 (-115)
4) Bettis rushing yards: Under 38.5 (+125)
5) Bettis receptions: Over 0.5 (+205)
6) Will Bettis rush for a TD: Yes (-185)
7) Parker rushing yards: Over 59.5 (-110)
8) Hasselback passing yards: Under 235 (+130)
9) Alexander rushing yards: Over 85.5 (-135)
10) Elton Brand Pts vs Alexander (+3.5) rushing attempts: Alexander (-105)
11) Nielsen ratings for Super Bowl XL: Under 42 (-150)
12) First TD scored by: Heath Miller (4/1)

It's now two Super Bowls in a row that I picked wrong (though the Eagles did cover the spread). The Steelers made the big plays, the Seahawks played soft, dropped passes, and botched the two-minute drill. The officiating wasn't great either, but the Steeler's won this game at least as much as Seattle gave it to them.

Prop Bets:
1) Steelers 21-10, lose
2) 31 total points, win
3) 123 yards, lose (ugly game for Ben, but that pass to Ward was big time)
4) 43 yards, lose (clock killing time gave him the edge)
5) 0, lose (he had a catch, but the play was negated due to penalty)
6) No, lose (he had his chances)
7) 93 yards, win (thanks to 75 yard home run)
8) 273 yards, lose (much higher if Jeremy Stevens weren't a pussy)
9) 95 yards, win (I though they should have run more)
10) 30 points to 20 carries, lose
11) ??
12) Roethlisberger, lose

And that's why I don't bet for real.