The Andrew Extravaganza

The new season of college football kicked off yesterday; September 1st marked the unofficial beginning to my favorite season of the year. On Saturdays in the fall, there isn’t anything I would rather do than wake up at 11 am and watch college football for twelve hours straight.

Last year I picked ten games per week to break down and pick the winners. This year I’m going to focus on only five games per week. Every Texas Longhorns game will get attention. In general, I will focus on Top 25 Teams, but I might see an intriguing match-up of scrubs on occasion.

To make it more interesting, I was going to bet on the games that I selected each week. However, I'm broke. Ideally, I will earn some money (and do well with my picks), allowing me to wager on games later in the season. At that point I'll be using Sportsbook.com; it’s not the highest rated online sportsbook, but it has three important things going for it: 1) $5 Minimum bets; 2) Free withdrawals; 3) On Fridays you lay -105 instead of -110, which means I'll pay less vig. My goal is to correctly pick 51.22% ATS, anything greater and I will turn a profit while watching football.

Last year I purchased Phil Steele’s College Football Preview magazine and I have done the same this year. Phil Steele is a highly regarded handicapper that studies pro and college football year round. Additionally, he writes all the team preview material for his magazines personally. The result is the highest rating for accuracy among college football preview magazines.

A few notes on the Match-ups section:
All rankings come from the USA Today Coaches Poll.
All lines come from Sportsbook.com unless otherwise noted.
TV coverage may be subject to regional games and local blackouts.
All times are central time.
Helmets come from The Helmet Project

I now present my predictions for the opening week of the 2005 season:

AT

Louisiana-Lafayette 0-0 (0-0) at #2 Texas 0-0 (0-0)
TV:
Date: Saturday, 9/3/2005
Time: 6:00 PM
Line: Texas by 40
Match-up:
Louisiana-Lafayette: Jr QB Jerry Babb is the key to the Ragin Cajuns' offense. Babb threw for 2345 yards and 12 TDs last year while leading his team in rushing with 498 yards and 4 TDs. Sr WR Bill Sampy was suspended from the team in the spring, but was reinstated. Sampy (57-776-6 in '04) is the best target for Babb and is capable of making big plays.
Texas: The Longhorns are probably more talented than at any other time in Mack Brown's tenure. Vince Young is a leading Heisman Trophy candidate but will need to improve upon his 2004 passing stats (148-250-1849-12-11) to lead Texas to the Rose Bowl again this year. Four year starter Cedric Benson is gone and will be replaced by the oft injured Selvin Young and a stable of talented, but unproven younger players. RB Ramonce Taylor will probably be used like Reggie Bush of USC and will make plays from several positions. Like the RB situation, the receiving corp is talented but inexperienced. However, Sr TE David Thomas is the leading receiver on the team and provides a big target for Young. The defense, now under former Auburn Defensive Coordinator Gene Chizik, will play a tough, agressive style of defense and challenge every yard of the field. Last year's DC Greg Davis departed for the HC job at Syracuse and took his bend but don't break philosphy with him. The transition shouldn't be diffiuclt because both men employ a zone-blitzing scheme. With talent like DT Rodrique Wright, MLB Aaron Harris, and CB Michael Huff, each position group has a proven leader.
Prediction: The Longhorns easily win every positional match-up and should push the Ragin Cajuns around with ease. Between Babb's scrambling ability and Sampy's skills at WR, UL-L might score, but not more than once. Texas will win 52-7.
Pick: SU & ATS

AT

Notre Dame 0-0 (0-0) at #25 Pittsburgh 0-0 (0-0)
TV:
Date: Saturday, 9/3/2005
Time: 7:00 PM
Line: Pittsburgh by 3
Match-up:
Notre Dame: Notre Dame's 1st year Head Coach is Charlie Weis, the former OC of the Patriots. Weis will run a West Coast Offense variant, as did his predecessor Tyrone Willingham. Weis will benefit from Willingham's regime because he began the move away from the option run game and brought in great talent that fit his offense. The Fighting Irish offense is in great shape with 11 returning starters led by Jr QB Brady Quinn (191-353-2586-17-10 in '04). RB Darius Walker set a ND Fr record for rushing yards last year with 786 yards and 7 TDs. Quinn has four great targets in WR Maurice Stovall, WR Rhema McKnight, WR Matt Shelton, and TE Anthony Fasano. The defense returns just 3 starters, but is very talented and should shape up as the season progresses. OLB Brandon Hoyte is the leading returning tackler and one of only two seniors as projected starters.
Pittsburgh: Former Chicago Bears and Miami Dolphins HC Dave Wannstedt took over after Walt Harris was essentially forced out and fled to Stanford. QB Tyler Palko lit up opposing secondaries as a So last year (230-409-3067-24-7); he should be even better this year. His best receiver is 2nd Team Big East star Greg Lee (68-1297-10), but former RB turned WR Joel DelSardo provides a great target as well (49-573-4). The RB situation isn't great; Sr Raymond Kirkley led the team with 560 yards and 6 TDs last year, but Pitt has 4 very good Fr backs (such as Conredge Collins) ready to take some carries. The offensive line only managed to block for 2.6 ypc running last year, but they should be improved. The defense returns 7 starters and is led by 1st Team Big East player H.B. Blades (108 Tkl, 2 sacks, 13 Tkl for loss, and 3 Int last year).
Prediction: These two teams are very evenly matched. Both teams should be able to move the ball through the air, but struggle running the ball. Pitt gets the edge in this one because their defense is more experienced and they're playing at home. I won’t be shocked if the Irish pull the road upset, but I think Pitt wins in a close one, 28-24.
Pick: SU & ATS

AT

#17 Texas A&M 0-0 (0-0) at Clemson 0-0 (0-0)
TV:
Date: Saturday, 9/3/2005
Time: 7:00 PM
Line: Texas A&M by 2
Match-up:
Texas A&M: The Aggies begin their 3rd season under HC Dennis Franchione as a dark horse contender for the Big Twelve South. Sr QB Reggie McNeal should be a Heisman Trophy candidate based on his stats from last year (200-344-2791-14-4 passing; 151-718-8 rushing). Jr RB Courtney Lewis has 4.3 spd, but spent most of last season hampered by a leg injury (175-742-9); he should be back to full speed and is a home-run threat every time he touches the ball. The receiving corps lacks experience, but should be strong. The defense should be much improved over last year. They have a great group of LBs that averages 6'3" 234 lbs. The secondary lost two starters at CB, but FS Jaxson Appel is a 1st Team Big 12 player patrolling the middle.
Clemson: Clemson is a team that has classically underachieved during the previous six seasons under Tommy Bowden. However, the Tigers have always managed to pull off a big upset to renew the faith in Bowden. After finishing a dismal 6-5 last year, both coordinators were replaced. This year’s edition will hang on the shoulders of Sr QB Charlie Whitehurst. In 2003, Whitehurst was stellar as he threw for 3,561 yards with a 21-13 ratio; last year was a major disappointment as his production dropped to 2,067 yards with a 7-17 ratio. 2005 should see a return near the level of ’03. Jr RB Reggie Merriweather will be a major threat as the full-time starter this year (136-670-11 in 6 starts last year). The receiving corps was plagued by injuries and dropped balls last year and should perform better. While talented, the Tigers have DTs that are only around 275 lbs. Sr CB Tye Hill is their best DB; he is a ACC champion sprinter in the 100m and set a new Clemson record with 21 passes defensed last season.
Prediction: The Aggies will dominate the line of scrimmage on offense and defense. A&M’s one glaring weakness is their inexperienced secondary so I expect Clemson to pick up solid yardage with Whitehurst’s arm. However, the Aggies will be bringing fierce pressure (they recorded 5 sacks vs Clemson last year) making pass protection a vital point of emphasis. Despite the miniscule point spread (it started at even odds), I see A&M winning this game by at least 10 points; the talent differential is vast. A&M wins 31-21.
Pick: SU & ATS

AT

#7 Virginia Tech 0-0 (0-0) at North Carolina State 0-0 (0-0)
TV:
Date: Sunday, 9/4/2005
Time: 6:15 PM
Line: Virginia Tech by 3.5
Match-up:
Virginia Tech: Jr QB Marcus Vick has returned to the team after a one year suspension stemming from widely publicized legal issues. Vick has the ability of his older brother (4.28 speed), but very little game experience to fall back on. In Eddie Royal (28-470-3) and Josh Hyman (27-491-5), Vick has two So WRs with blazing speed and game-breaking potential. Sr TE Jeff King (25-304-4) provides a big possession receiving target. Sr RBs Cedric Humes (130-605-5) and Mike Imoh (158-720-6) will allow the Hokies to establish a potent running game. The two defensive stars are Sr DE Darryl Tapp (8.5 sacks and 1st Team ACC last year) and Sr CB Jimmy F. Williams (5 Int and 1st Team ACC last year). Frank Beamer coached teams traditionally have strong special teams and this year shouldn’t be any different.
North Carolina State: Sr QB Jay Davis returns as the starter for the Wolfpack’s second year post Philip Rivers. Last year, Davis struggled (175-313-2104-12-15), but should be improved. The RB situation is uncertain after Jr T.A. McClendon left early for the NFL. So RB Darrell Blackman is the leading returning rusher (52-206-1), but a couple of talented Fr might compete for carries. With Sr WR Tramain Hall (28-324-3), Jr WR Lamart Barrett (24-326-0), and Sr TE T.J. Williams (31-382-0), Davis should have three solids guys to catch his passes. The defensive line returns four starters, including Sr DE Manny Lawson (7 sacks, 2nd Team ACC) and Jr DE Mario Williams (6 sacks, 1st Team ACC). Last year the defense held opponents to 2.6 ypc and recorded 33 sacks; they shouldn’t have any trouble repeating or bettering that performance. The secondary lost 4 starters and should struggle early in the season.
Prediction:The line in this one scared the hell out me; it opened at VT by 5.5. I expect this game to be a defensive bloodbath. Tech has a top 10 caliber defensive line and a very solid group of LBs; NC State might have the best defensive line in the country and LBs just as good as the Hokies. I was tempted to take the Wolfpack with the points. But the legs and cannon arm of Vick, the playmakers at WR, and the formidable special teams unit ought to be enough for Virginia Tech wins 17-10.
Pick: SU & ATS

AT

#8 Miami (FL) 0-0 (0-0) at #12 Florida State 0-0 (0-0)
TV:
Date: Monday, 9/5/2005
Time: 7:00 PM
Line: Miami by 3
Match-up:
Miami: So QB Kyle Wright has thrown nine passes in his career. That is one example of the inexperience plaguing an offense that lost 7 starters from last year. Fortunately, Miami has never had trouble recruiting some of the best talent in the nation. Jr RB Tyrone Moss (102-445-6) will be the focal point of the offense until Wright gets his sea legs. So WR Lance Leggett is a dangerous weapon (17-349-4) and So TE Greg Olsen should continue the tradition of solid Miami TEs. The defense is loaded with 9 returning starters. CB Antrel Rolle was a top 10 pick in the draft, but Devin Hester is a star in the making and should fill in nicely.
Florida St: In early June, QB Wyatt Sexton was found roaming the streets of Tallahassee claiming to be God; apparently he has lyme disease and will miss the season. Two redshirt freshmen will likely split time at QB: Xavier Lee and Drew Weatherford; Bowden has decided to go with Weatherford for the Miami game. The Seminoles return two outstanding backs in Sr Leon Washington (138-951-7) and Jr Lorenzo Booker (173-887-4). The WRs are very inexperienced, but of course that unit is loaded with talent and should turn out okay in the long run. The defense lost most of its starters, including a season ending injury to 1st Team ACC CB Adrian Cromartie (he shredded his knee). Sr FS Pat Watkins will be the leader in the secondary in Cromartie’s absence. The strength of the FSU defense is in the LBs; all three starters return. Ernie Sims, Buster Davis, and A.J. Nicholson are all fast and fly to the ball.
Prediction: Each team has a QB making his first start. Both teams will look to run the ball and avoid making a crippling mistake. In a defensive battle, I give the edge to Miami. Miami wins 16-10.
Pick: SU & ATS

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