The Andrew Extravaganza

The moment you have all been waiting for has finally arrived. Week two of my college football pick'em is now available. If nothing else, I hope that all of you enjoy the pretty helmets.

I don't know how many of you bothered to read my matchup analysis last week, but I'll make it easier for you this week. Almost every game will feature a potent rushing attack versus a defense that is either strong, or a defense that was expected to be strong, but has failed to live up to the preseason hype. The running game will determine the winner.

This week has the potential for a handful of upsets on the road. Last week I felt pretty confident in my picks, but this week I think the stronger team in most matchups is on the road in a hostile environment, which is causing some doubt in my mind. We'll see how it turned out in 24 hours.

VS
#2 Oklahoma (4-0, 1-0) vs #5 Texas (4-0, 1-0)
Line: OU by 7

Bob Stoops has routinely made Mack Brown look like a poorly prepared coach that can't deal with the pressure of an intense rivalry. This year OU has a clear edge in talent, but I think the Horns are much tougher mentally (although UT did claim the same thing last year). Vince Young has been an efficient passer so far: 21-81-653-8-2 with 0 sacks and 224 yds rushing. Cedric Benson leads the NCAA in yds/gm with 98-746-7. Oklahoma QB Jason White has returned to Heismen trophy form after poor outings versus KSU and LSU to end last year: 67-96-859-9-1 with 2 sacks. His favorite target is one of the best WRs in college football, Mark Clayton. This year the OU offense features a potent running attack with the addition of true freshmen Adrian Peterson, who has rushed for 546 yards and 6 TDs on 87 carries. Also in the mix is Kejuan Jones, who will be returning from an injury.

If OU can shut down Cedric Benson, the game will get ugly. Greg Davis has to grow a pair and avoid getting conservative in a pressure situation. He must not abandon the run if early success is not there. Let Vince Young roll out of the pocket to take advantage of his legs. Do NOT throw quick screens to a WR, bubble screens to a WR, or a swing pass to a slot receiver. That bastard loves to call these plays, but the reality is they were rarely effective even when Roy Williams was on the field. I'd love to see a playaction pass deep to TE David Thomas or to a WR on the very first play. Up to this point, the Horns have not used many blitzes (to save up for OU). If UT can't get to Jason White, he will have a field day against the zone coverages that the secondary is trying to adjust to after years of man to man schemes. On the flip side, if OU can get pressure on Young while maintaing discipline, I think we'll see him launch a few lofted jump balls up in the air similar to the game against Texas Tech last year. When Young needs to scramble, but can't find a lane, he looks like a deer in the headlights.

Talent edge goes to OU, but this year I have a feeling that UT can make the big play when needed (look at the defensive stands against Arkansas late after Greg Davis went into turtle mode on offense). OU could also be complacent from crushing the Horns every year, but I doubt Stoops would allow this. I have to take the Horns based on my gut, but also because maintaining good karma demands it.
Pick: UT wins SU and ATS

AT
#7 California (4-0, 1-0) vs #1 Southern California (4-0, 1-0)
Line: USC by 7.5
Cal impressed by going up to Corvallis, OR and dominating Oregon St. USC has struggled at times, but they could be the most talented team in the country. Cal is ranked 2nd in total offense with 278 yds rushing/gm and 261 yds passing/gm. They are led by QB Aaron Rodgers and RB J.J. Arrington. Just as importantly, they are 11th in total defense and allow only 158 yards through the air in the game. USC QB Matt Leinart is 84-124-1023-8-2 with 7 sacks. Both Lendell White and Reggie Bush have over 330 yards rushing (335 and 330) and have combined for 8 TDs. The teams are basically equal. USC has revenge on their mind and will be playing in a packed LA Coliseum.
Pick: USC wins SU and ATS

AT
#17 Tennessee (3-1, 1-1) vs #3 Georgia (4-0, 2-0)
Line: UGA by 12.5
Auburn went in to Knoxville and exposed the Vols last week. Georgia absolutely destroyed LSU at home last week. If LSU and Saban's blitz packages couldn't get pressure on David Greene then I don't think the Vols defense can do it either. If LSU and their All-SEC corners couldn't defend against Greene, then the Vols poor secondary will get beat too. I see UGA's true freshmen RB tandem of Danny Ware and Thomas Brown moving the ball for about 150 yards and David Greene throwing for 3 scores. The only chance Tennessee has if for a letdown from Georgia after a big revenge win of the Tigers.
Pick: UGA wins SU and ATS

AT
#8 Florida State (3-1, 2-1) vs Syracuse (3-2, 1-0)
Line: FSU by 19
The best thing that could have happened to the Seminoles may be the injury to Chris Rix. Over his college career, Rix has had a Technical Sergeant Garp like erosion of abilities. Sophomore QB Wyatt Sexton lit up the UNC Tar Heels last week in his first start, but it remains to be seen if he can repeat that performance. Helping to reduce the pressure on Sexton will be the number 5 rush defense that has allowed only 67.5 yards per game. Syracuse features two RBs with blazing speed in Walter Reyes (97-529-4) and Damien Rhodes(46-308-4). They better produce because their QB is inexperienced So Perry Patterson, who has thrown 2 TD vs 4 INT. Florida St. will win, but the Orangemen will play well on turf in the Carrier Dome and should have a big crowd on hand.
Pick: FSU win SU, Syracuse wins ATS

AT
#24 LSU (3-2, 1-2) vs #12 Florida (3-1, 2-1)
Line: UF by 3
Last week LSU was embarrassed by Georgia on the road and it doesn't get much easier this week as they go into the Swamp. LSU coach Nick Saban is 1-3 against the Gators, but the win came at Florida in 2002. I really like Gators QB Chris Leak, but he can be forced into mistakes and the blitzes from LSU should cause a couple. LSU has to get tough against the run as they allowed UGA's freshmen duo of Ware and Brown to put up 190 yards rushing. I think their pass D is fine despite allowing 5 of David Greene's 10 completions to be for TDs. Greene played the game of his life and threw on the money (thanks to good protection) to well covered receivers. Leak won't do that this week. I like the Tigers to get the upset on the road to close out a nightmare schedule of games at Auburn, at Georgia, and at Florida.
Pick: LSU wins SU and ATS

AT
#13 Minnesota (5-0, 2-0) vs #14 Michigan (4-1, 2-0)
Line: Michigan by 4
Michigan boasts the number 1 ranked rush defense in the NCAA, allowing just 47.2 yards per game. They have also forced an NCAA best 19 turnovers. Freshmen QB Chad Henne has well (83-135-1096-9-5), but has been sacked 16 times and can look puzzled at times. He does have All-American candidate WR Braylon Edwards to throw to. He has been Randy Moss like in his ability to chase after bad throws. Edwards' numbers are: 40-665-7, he's second in the NCAA in receiving yards. Michigan has not been able to establish a running game. Minnesota counters with the number 2 ranked rushing attack, which is led by Marion Barber III(106-602-7) and Laurence Maroney(95-670-5). They have pushed around some weak defenses to build the following per game averages (nat'l rank in parentheses): 323(2nd) rushing and 191 passing for a total of 514(5th). Last week they run on Penn St, but Michigan has a huge defensive line and won't be moved around so easily. If this game were in the dome at Minnesota, I'd take the Gophers. However, the game is in the Big House and 107,000 people will create a lot of noise. The Wolverines are 31-3 at home since 1999 and I suspect they will add another win on Saturday.
Pick: Michigan wins SU and ATS

AT
#21 Oklahoma State (4-0, 1-0) vs Colorado (3-1, 0-1)
Line: OkSt by 6.5
Oklahoma State has been running all over their opponents this year. They are 4th in the NCAA with 297.5 yards rushing per game. The main man is RB Vernand Morency and he has been unstoppable in racking up 704 yards and 6 TDs on 104 attempts. The big question mark for the Cowboys is what happens when they have to pass? QB Donovan Woods only has 41 pass attempts this season, but has been efficient (18-41-331-4-1). He is also a threat to run: 32-91-5. Oklahoma State has been able to pressure opposing QBs, due in large part to DE Nathan Peterson, who has 14 sacks (1st NCAA). Colorado has had trouble on offense as QB Joel Klatt has not been able to put up numbers similar to his 21-10 TD to INT ratio last season. RB Bobby Purify (96-435-5) injured is shoulder last week and might be hampered. The Cowboys haven't won in Colorado since Barry Sanders was running for Tailback U, but I think there is a strong chance for that streak to end.
Pick: OkSt wins SU and ATS

AT
#16 Wisconsin (5-0, 2-0) vs #15 Ohio State (3-1, 0-1)
Line: Ohio St. by 3.5
Wisconsin is 5-0 despite a stagnant offense, but showed signs of life last week when RB Anthony Davis returned from an eye injury. The Badgers D is one of three teams to not have allowed a rushing TD this season. It shouldn't surprise you then to say that they are 4th in run D at 66.6 yd/gm, but they are also 4th in pass D at 127 yds/gm. Additionally, Wisconsin is only allowing opponents 5.2 pts/game. So what's the catch? They haven't exactly played many strong teams. Last week Ohio State suffered a bad loss on the road to Northwestern in OT. Led by So QB Justin Zwick, the Buckeyes offense hasn't really inspired much confidence yet either. The game is in the Horseshoe, so I give Ohio State a slight edge. I really hate the Buckeyes though and I think Wisconsin shuts them down. I'm thinking this will be a 17-14 kind of game with a big run by Badgers RB Anthony Davis being the difference.
Pick: Wisconsin wins SU and ATS

AT
Georgia Tech (2-2, 1-2) vs #23 Maryland (3-1, 1-0)
Line: Maryland by 11.5
Maryland doesn't impress me a whole lot (I have a southern bias), but I think they can manage a win at home versus a young, inconsistent offense that is coming a blowout loss to Miami. GT So QB Reggie Ball has thrown 7 TD to 8 INT, 3 of the picks came against Miami. He has shown flashes of brilliance, but without a solid running game to support him I see trouble again. Concerning the run game, P.J. Daniels is questionable after missing the Miami game with a quadriceps injury. Maryland's loss came on the road against a good West Virginia team and it took overtime to do it. The Terps have a balanced attack led by QB Joel Statham (So), 61-104-907-7-7 and RBs Sam Maldonado (358-4) and Josh Allen(294-3). The X-factor is the play of both sophomore QB's. Statham has the luxury of playing mistake free ball and winning behind the running game and defense, while Ball will have to be the catalyst.
Pick: Maryland wins SU and ATS

AT
Arizona (1-3, 0-1) vs UCLA (3-1, 1-0)
Line: UCLA by 11
I smell a big road upset for Mike Stoops' Wildcat team. Arizona has 3 losses, but they have been very competitive. The Wildcats are averaging 13.3 pts per game and allowing an average of 13.8 pts per game. UCLA has been playing in the typical Bruins fashion, shootout victories. UCLA averages 273 rushing and 197 passing and allows on average 248 running and 184 passing. As a Longhorn fan, I've seen first hand what a Mike Stoops defense is capable of. Granted that was with OU talent and not the mutinous remains of a program run into the ground by former UT coack John Mackovic. If QB Kris Heavner(61-94-655-4-1) can play well and one of the RBs step up, I think the it could be enough to sneak in a victory. This is by no means going to be easy though becaus UCLA has been running the ball like a Big 10 team with Maurice Drew(669-7) and Manuel White(361-3). Jr QB Drew Olson has been mistake prone, he has a 17 to 18 TD to INT ratio in 18 career starts over the last 3 years. I don't think Arizona can expect to win many games this year, but they could steal one and UCLA is a good target.
Pick: Arizona wins SU and ATS