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October 01, 2004

Texas Over Baylor

Posted at October 1, 2004 05:32 PM in Sports .

Today I introduce a new feature to the Andrew Extravaganza. Each week (until it becomes too tedious at least) I will pick ten college football games to break down (briefly) and pick the winner.



AT
Baylor (2-1, 0-0) vs #5 Texas (3-0, 0-0)
Line: Texas by 37
While the Bears are better this year and are coming off a win over a decent North Texas team, the reality is they are still the doormat of the Big 12. The only way Texas doesn't cover is if they rest Benson after the first quarter to save him for OU. It might be close at the half if they try to work on the passing game and Vince Young starts completing passes to Baylor.
Pick:Texas wins SU and ATS



AT
Kansas State (2-1, 0-0) vs Texas A&M (2-1, 0-0)
Line: A&M by 4
A&M has rebounded nicely after getting blasted in the sack by Utah. K-State showed the country why it prefers to schedule cupcakes when Fresno St showed up and dominated them. The Wildcats are less talented, but more experienced...accept at QB where they miss Ell Roberson. The talented, but inconsistent Aggies should win by controlling RB Darren Sproles and playing at Kyle Field certainly won't hurt.
Pick:A&M wins SU and ATS



AT
#4 Miami (3-0, 1-0) vs Georgia Tech (2-1, 1-1)
Line: Miami by 14
Miami has a national championship caliber defense, but the offense has routinely sucked. QB Brock Berlin gets rattled too easily and opponents are able to focus on the run. The Yellow Jackets are coming off a bye week and have a solid defense and a former ACC Freshmen of the Year in So QB Reggie Ball. I think Georgia Tech will hang around and give the Canes a scare, but ultimately Miami will come through with a big play on the road. Miami will lose at least once in the regular season though.
Pick:Miami wins SU, Georgia Tech wins ATS



AT
Arkansas (3-1, 1-0) vs #16 Florida (2-1, 1-1)
Line: Florida by 7.5
Don't be fooled by the record, the Gators beat Tennessee two weeks ago. Two big mistakes by the referees in the last minute gave the game to the Vols. Arkansas QB Matt Jones is a playmaker, but in the Swamp that won't be enough. Good defense and an offense led by So QB Chris Leak and RB Ciatrick Fason will result in the Gators rolling to a 3 touchdown margin of victory.
Pick:Florida wins SU and ATS



AT
#13 LSU (3-1, 1-1) vs #3 Georgia (3-0, 1-0)
Line: Georgia by 2.5
This game is basically a coin flip with UGA only getting the edge because they'll be at home, between the hedges at Sanford Stadium. Both offenses have struggled so far (LSU did light up Miss St last weekend, but the Bulldogs lost to Maine the week before so I don't count that as a real game.) As much as I hate to admit it, Georgia should win this. LSU has two inexperienced QBs, although RS-Fr JaMarcus Russell has an NFL arm, and they have an inexperienced receiver corps. UGA will be trotting out Sr QB David Greene. This should be a defensive battle similar to LSU at Auburn two weeks ago. The difference will be a play on special teams or a big play in the passing game on a busted coverage.
Pick:Georgia wins SU and ATS



AT
#10 California (2-0, 0-0) vs Oregon St (1-3, 0-1)
Line: Cal by 6.5
Cal hasn't played since Sept. 11 due to a hurricane (I can't remember which one at this point) postponing the game at Southern Miss and then a bye last week. Oregon State has 3 losses, but they all came on the road in very close games. OSU QB Derek Anderson has thrown for 1300 yards and 10 Tds. Cal is a favorite to contend for the PAC-10 title, but I see an upset loss on the road this week. Oregon State is a quality team and Cal should be slightly rusty or even looking ahead to the game against USC next week.
Pick: Oregon St wins SU and ATS



AT
Texas Tech (3-1, 1-0) vs #2 Oklahoma (3-0, 0-0)
Line: OU by 27
If only the Red Raiders played defense, this game could be interesting. OU hasn't been dominant yet and has been getting off to slow starts, which is probably why true freshmen RB Adrian Peterson will get the start. Tech should score about 20, but OU will easily double that and cover.
Pick: OU wins SU and ATS



AT
#7 West Virginia (4-0, 0-0) vs Virginia Tech (2-2, 1-1)
Line: Virginia Tech by 3
Does the Big East deserve an automatic BCS berth now? Of course not. What's worse is that after this game, West Virginia should be able to run the table (not guaranteed, but extremely possible) and get into the Orange Bowl. The Mountaineers are good, but not elite. That's why the Hokies must and will win this home game. It won't be easy, NC State sacked QB Brian Randall 10 times last week in a bad loss. The silver lining is that Virginia Tech missed a field goal at the end that would have won the game. If the Hokies figure out how to pass block and can limit the damage done by RB Kay-Jay Harris and the overrated WR Chris Henry, then the country should be able to breathe easier as the Hokies will roll. Oregon State is the best three loss team in the country and Virginia Tech is the best two loss team.
Pick: VaTech wins SU and ATS



AT
#15 Purdue (3-0, 1-0) vs Notre Dame (3-1)
Line: Purdue by 2.5
Notre Dame has rallied since losing to BYU to open the season. Purdue has been great and is trying to make a case for the title of best team in the Big 11. Even though this one is in South Bend, I think the Boilermakers will crush the Fighting Mc's. Purdue QB Kyle Orton has been averaging 365 passing yards per game and has a 13-0 TD to Int ratio. Coupled with a strong defense, I don't think the Domers will have an answer.
Pick: Purdue wins SU and ATS



AT
#9 Auburn (4-0, 2-0) vs #8 Tennessee (3-0, 1-0)
Line: Tennessee by 2.5
This should be a classic SEC battle between two powerhouse teams. Tennessee rotates two freshmen QBs (Erik Ainge has gotten the bulk of the snaps and will start), which worked okay against Florida, but it is guaranteed to bite you at some point. Auburn has a powerful running attack and efficient passing game. I expect both teams to pound away with the run first to set up the playaction pass. Tennessee features RBs Cedric Houston(310 yds, 2 TD, 2nd Team SEC) and Gerald Riggs(258 yds, 1 TD) and Auburn counters with RBs Carnell Williams(395 yds, 3 TD, 1st Team SEC) and Ronnie Brown(269 yds, 1 TD). Helping Auburn is the fact that the Volunteers lost 2nd Team SEC MLB Kevin Simon for the season during the Florida game. The game is at Neyland Stadium, which helps Tennessee, but I think Auburn will come out on top.
Pick: Auburn wins SU and ATS

Comments

Very cool post. You also need to follow up on Sundays with your results.

Posted by G at October 1, 2004 09:29 PM


yes very well done, I especially like the helmets, nice touch

Posted by sheelpi at October 2, 2004 10:19 AM


Do you actually expect people to read that long-ass boring post about (shock of all shocks) college football? I'm sure G and Sheelpi were just cajoling you. C'mon dude, get a job.

Posted by Nick at October 18, 2004 10:09 PM


I'm just playin' dude, rock on!!!!!!

Posted by Nick at October 18, 2004 10:28 PM


Thanks for the kind words asshole.

I have no illusions about my entries. I seriously doubt people read much, if any, of these posts.

I'm doing this for two reasons: 1) to occupy my time and 2) the research I do to write the analysis helps me learn about teams that I otherwise wouldn't follow very closely. It's all for my enjoyment, not yours.

When someone happens to read a portion of my college football entries it only slightly enhances my sense of self worth. Read it not, I don't care.

Posted by Andrew at October 18, 2004 11:26 PM


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