The Andrew Extravaganza

This week will see the ranks of the undefeated teams thinned. Hopefully it will see a return to the form of my 9-1 SU first week as well. I was hoping to get this posted before the kickoff of the West Virginia at Connecticut game, but they have probably started by now. I'm sure my loyal readers trust me enough to know that I haven't checked on the progress of that game before posting my pick. I'm even more sure of the fact that my loyal readers are few in number and wouldn't even know that WVU at UCONN was tonight and already in progress if I hadn't told them.

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#16 West Virginia (4-1, 0-0) vs Connecticut (4-1, 1-1)
Line: West Virginia by 7
Now that West Virginia has had its national championship hopes dashed by Virginia Tech, I won't actively root against them. The Mountaineers go on the road to Storrs, CT to take on Big East newcomer UCONN. Led by NFL prospect QB Dan Orlovsky (1390 YDS - 10 TD - 6 INT), the Huskies should put up a fight, but their small and inexperienced defensive line should yield to West Virginia's rushing attack. WVU RB Kay-Jay Harris (571-6) should have a big night and the defense and CB Adam "Pac-Man" Jones should be able to contain Orlovsky.
Pick: West Virginia wins SU and ATS

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#17 Louisville (4-0, 2-0) vs #3 Miami (4-0, 2-0)
Line: Miami by 9.5
Louisville is ranked 11th in rushing offense with 246 yds/gm and 25th in passing offense with 258 yds/gm. Expect both of those averages to drop after the Cardinals get a taste of Miami's great defense. And while 246 yards on the ground is unlikely, Louisville's big RBs should be able to get some tough yards. RB Eric Shelton (247 lb FSU transfer) has 296 yards & 8 TD rushing, RB Michael Bush (240 lbs) adds 249 and 3, and RB Lionel Gates had 188-5. Miami will depend on RBs Frank Gore (282-3) and Tyrone Moss (268-4) to keep the pressure off of easily rattled QB Brock Berlin (676-5-2). This is Louisville's first tough test and while I don't see them winning, Miami's offense has enough question marks for the Cardinals to keep it close.
Pick: Miami wins SU but Louisville wins ATS

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#24 Missouri (4-1, 2-0) vs #11 Texas (4-1, 1-1)
Line: Texas by 14
OU shut out Texas last week; that's the bad news. The good news is that UT is 5-0 after the OU game since '99. Mack Brown has done a great job regrouping against good opponents, but those wins haven't always been easy. As Adrian Peterson showed the country, Texas will allow runners to get outside and make big gains. Mizzou feature dynamic QB Brad Smih (1010-10-3 passing, 300 yds rushing) and RB Damien Nash (453-6). On defense they have 9 starters back from last season and DE Brian Smith has 4 sacks. UT is a two man show on offense: QB Vince Young (739-8-2 passing, 278 yards rushing) and RB Cedric Benson (838-7). Benson is right on track for 2000 yards, but it won't be easy to keep pace against a tough opponent this week. UT should be able to win this, but Vince Young will need to be more accurate on his passes if they expect to do so easily. I have my doubts.
Pick: Texas wins SU but Missouri wins ATS

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Texas A&M (4-1, 2-0) vs #15 Oklahoma State (5-0, 2-0)
Line: Oklahoma St by 7
The Aggies are a very talented team and have been very good since the season opening blowout loss to Utah. QB Reggie McNeal is dangerous threw the air (1037-5-0) and on the ground (365-5). RB Courtney Lewis hasn't been able to get on track and is the second on the team in rushing behind his QB. Oklahoma State is UT-lite. Their offense consists of RB Vernand Morency (869-8), QB Donovan Woods (522-7-2; great game vs Col last week), and Donovan's brother, WR D'Juan Woods (10-180-5). If A&M can slow down Morency they will win, but no team has come close to that feat yet. This game should be high scoring and I think the Cowboys win at home.
Pick: Oklahoma St wins SU and ATS

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#19 Arizona State (5-0, 2-0) vs #1 USC (5-0, 2-0)
Line: USC by 11
This game has potential upset written all over it. USC is coming off a tough home win versus Cal and is hurting in the WR corps and secondary from injuries. Marshall Faulk-like RB Reggie Bush (353-3) will need to run well and split out wide to catch some passes. The Trojans have a great defense that has two outstanding pass rushers in DE Shaun Cody (5 sacks) and NT Mike Patterson (4.5 sacks). Arizona State has potent offense with QB Andrew Walter (1249-15-1), who likes to spread the ball to many receivers. The Sun Devils haven't shown much of a running game and with a one-dimensional attack, Walter should be harassed all day by USC's pass rushers. If this turns into a PAC-10 shootout, Arizona State will win.
Pick: USC wins SU but Arizona St wins ATS

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Arkansas (3-2, 1-1) vs #4 Auburn (6-0, 3-0)
Line: Auburn by 13
The Razorbacks have one returning starter from last season: QB Matt Jones (1090-7-7, 313 yds rushing). That's not a bad guy to call the shots for your offense, but the inexperienced players in support of him often lead Jones to press and throw into tight spots. The defense has only 3 returning starters, but hasn't performed above expectations like the offense has. Look for Auburn to run and pass all over the Hogs with QB Jason Campbell and RBs Carnell Williams and Ronnie Brown. Auburn's SS Junior Rosegreen is first in the NCAA with 5 Ints. Arkansas does play well against the Tigers (3-2 last 5 yrs), but this Auburn team has national championship caliber written all over it.
Pick: Auburn wins SU and ATS

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#12 Wisconsin (6-0, 3-0) vs #5 Purdue (5-0, 2-0)
Line: Purdue by 6.5
The winner of this game will have the Big 11 conference title as theirs to lose. Wisconsin has a great defense from the front 7 to the secondary. LB Erasmus James has 6 sacks on the year and should have plenty of chances to add to that number in this game. Their offense is focused on the run and has RB Anthony Davis (459-5) leading the way. Purdue has a wide open passing attack starring QB Kyle Orton (1642-18-2) and WR Taylor Stubblefield (35-568-11). Purdue's defense is the best they've had in a long time and has two strong pass rushers in DE Ray Edwards (5 sacks) and DE Anthony Spencer (4.5 sacks). Wisconsin doesn't figure on giving them many opportunities to pressure John Stocco though. I like Purdue's offense in this one because they have more talented WRs than the Badgers have talented DBs.
Pick: Purdue wins SU and ATS

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#6 Virginia (5-0, 2-0) vs #7 Florida State (4-1, 2-1)
Line: Florida St by 3
The Cavaliers like to run the ball with RB Wali Lundy (484-10), RB Alvin Pearman (244-6), and RB Michael Johnson (296). Their QB Marques Hagans has a good arm (995-5-1) and can scramble if needed (165-3). Florida State likes to run with RB Leon Washington (541-5) and RB Lorenzo Booker (371-1). They need to be able to move it on the ground because QB Wyatt Sexton is making only his 3rd career start. Both defenses are very good, Virginia is ranked 11 against the run compared to the FSU at 3rd. I expect QB play to be the difference, so the Cavs should win in spite of the constant loud & stupid tomahawk chopping chants from Seminoles fans.
Pick: Virginia wins SU and ATS

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North Carolina (3-3, 2-2) vs #10 Utah (5-0, 2-0)
Line: Utah by 20.5
UNC didn't show up earlier in the season, but last week they beat in state rival NCState 30-24 at home as 10.5 pt dogs. Their QB Darian Durant can be effective if he has time to throw (1030-8-6), but will need a strong showing by RB Jacque Lewis (495-3) to buy that time. The Utes will spread the Tar Heels out and have QB Alex Smith (1119-8-1 passing, 207-6 rushing) making plays all night. His favorite targets are WR Paris Warren (21-382-2) and WR Steve Savoy (25-377-4). Neither team has a super defense, but Utah has a clear talent edge in that category. This should be a 49-24 kind of victory for Utah.
Pick: Utah wins SU and ATS

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Notre Dame (4-2) vs Navy (5-0)
Line: Notre Dame by 7
Notre Dame has played a tough schedule and has managed to execute the West Coast offense pretty well. Even more important to their success has been the ability to shut down the opposition's run game (87 yds/gm, 11th). Their pass defense has been lacking (264 yds/gm, 101st), but lucky for them Navy runs the flex option. The Irish will be able to move the ball with Fr RB Darrius Walker (436-3) and hope that will be enough to score a bunch of points because QB Brady Quinn (1529-9-5) had a minor concussion last week versus Standord and can't afford to get roughed up again. Navy is led by QB Aaron Polanco (104-464-7 rushing) and tough running FB Kyle Eckel (387-6). Two Sr Slot backs, Frank Divis and Eric Roberts will get some carries as well. Against Notre Dame they will probably need to pass more, but last year they did rush for 238 yards in a tough 24-27 road loss to the Domers. Navy is a veteran team, which usually helps, but in this case it just means they should be used to the blowout loss they will receive. Navy is 0-14 versus Notre Dame since 1990.
Pick: Notre Dame wins SU and ATS